There has been a noticeable vibe shift over the past couple months regarding Ukraine.
The new narrative goes something like this:
With advanced drone technology, Ukraine appears to have innovated its way out of its manpower disadvantage at the front, and as a result, Russia is quickly losing its capacity to conduct offensive ground operations.
Additionally, Ukraine’s deep strike capacity is changing the trajectory of the war, with missile and drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, command centers, and logistical hubs becoming more frequent and accurate.
So how does this new narrative correspond to the reality on the ground?
On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, host Brian Whitmore speaks with military analyst Michael Kofman, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Principal Research Scientist at the CNA Corporation, and a senior editor at War on the Rocks.
Enjoy…
Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky @powervertical.bsky.social
SHOW NOTES
The audio clips opening the podcast and the second segment are from a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 22, 2026. The translations from Ukrainian are as follows:
“Ukraine’s positions are stronger now than in previous years. Since the beginning of the year, 590 square kilometers of our territory have been liberated and brought under our control. The trend is certainly not in the occupier’s favor. We continue to increase the rate at which Russian personnel are being eliminated, and together with sanctions in all their forms, this is forcing Russia toward diplomacy.”
“We continue our long-range operations. It is important that our frontline positions are also strong, with good results on key fronts in particular. I am grateful to all our Airborne Assault Forces and our assault troops. I am grateful to all units that are effectively repelling Russian assaults. I also thank everyone who supports our army and our Security Forces.”
Michael Kofman’s recently published work can be accessed here and here. The Russia Contingency Podcast can be accessed here. Michael Kofman’s social media threads covering the war can be accessed here.
Brian Whitmore’s report for The Atlantic Council, “Russian Illusions: How the West lost the post-Cold War era,” can be accessed here. His essay, “Russia the Harbinger: Gangsterism, Global Putinism, and the Crisis of the West,” which was recently published as a chapter in the edited volume Perpetual Conflict: Russia and the Struggle for European Securitycan be accessed here.
The Power Vertical Newsletter on Substack can be accessed here. Other recently published work by Brian Whitmore can be accessed here, here, here, and here. Please follow Brian Whitmore and The Power Vertical on Bluesky@powervertical.bsky.social
